It’s time for our yearly installment of the Malibu real estate year in review! 2023 certainly brought change to the U.S. housing market as a whole, and Malibu was no exception.

We began the year with a very low supply of inventory, courtesy of the booming real estate markets in the post-COVID era. As a result, 2023 saw far fewer transactions in Malibu. However, it also outperformed expectations and saw the highest sale in California history. Without further ado, let’s dive in.

The Mark & Grether Group’s 2023 Year in Review

We are thrilled to have closed over $115 million in real estate transactions during 2023! This includes:

• 19 single-family homes, condominiums, income properties, land lots, and burnout lots sold including our second-highest sale ever at $37.5 million!
• 43 seasonal and long-term leases ranging from $3,600/month to $185,000/month.
• 64 sellers, buyers, landlords, and tenants represented.

Thank you to our clients, referral partners, friends, and families for another fantastic year. We strive to offer each client our undivided and personalized attention. As usual, the bulk of our transactions took place in our home and business location in Malibu. However, we were proud to close sales and leases in Los Angeles, Pacific Palisades, Santa Monica, Agoura, and beyond!

Get in touch to learn more about our unique approach to real estate and how we can help you make moves in 2024.

Malibu Market Overview

To keep our finger on the pulse of the Malibu market, we the MLS every day for new listings, price adjustments, escrows, and recent sales which set the most current comps for the future. At the end of every year, we take all of the sales and compare them to the previous year. All figures are based on the MLS data and do not include off-market sales.

• In Malibu, the total sales volume for the year 2023 was $1.2 billion. This is over $1.7+ billion below 2022, which saw a sales volume of $2.84 billion.
• 2023 saw 146 single-family homes sold on and off of the beach. Not surprisingly, this is a decrease from 228 homes in 2022, and under half of the 360 homes sold in 2021 (the all-time record in Malibu).
• The highest sale of 2023, and the new California record, was recorded at $190,000,000 on the bluffs of Paradise Cove. The buyers are no secret, and word got out quickly that Jay-Z and Beyonce had bought a stunning compound designed by Tadao Ando.

Broad strokes help to paint the picture, but Malibu is full of completely different communities, beaches, and properties all offering something unique. Let’s get into the specifics of each property type.

Single-Family Home Sales

In 2023, the average sale price of a Malibu home was $6.1 million (not considering the record-setting sale). This is down from the $7.3 million average in 2022. There were 8 sales at over $20 million, down from 11 the previous year. There were only 25 homes sold above $10 million.

The lowest-priced home sold in 2023 went over asking for $1.4 million in El Nido, Corral Canyon. Several other properties were sold below this, however, they were either inhabitable or un-permitted.

Malibu Beach

• Total sales: 35 (61 in 2022)
• Average sold price: $16.8 million/$11.5 million* ($14.3 million in 2022) *with the $190 million sale/without*
• Average days on market: 91 (85 in 2022)
• Total volume sold: $571 million ($876 million in 2022)

Malibu Landside

• Total sales: 112 (167 in 2022)
• Average sold price: $4.5 million ($4.7 million in 2022)
• Average days on market: 54 (72 days in 2022)
• Total volume sold: $514 million ($795 million in 2022)

The year-over-year data paints a clear picture, but not the whole picture. Prices have dropped slightly, but days on market have stayed relatively the same and in some cases decreased. Malibu’s continued lack of housing supply has kept the small number of available properties churning, though seller’s have had to make concessions from the historic highs brought by 2021/2022. The ultra-high end is still performing, and a slew of off-market sales not in the data above confirm that the affluent are still indeed buying in Malibu.

We’ve said it before and will say it again: Malibu homes are a finite resource. Generally speaking, they aren’t building more. Scarcity continues to be a driving factor on and off the beach.

Best Performing Neighborhoods

Unlike years prior, there is not a beachfront community that has significantly outperformed its neighbors. What does stand out is the homes themselves. Many of the year’s top sales have been architecturally significant and represented the highest end of luxury real estate. The $190 million sale on Paradise Cove certainly meets the criteria, and the same can be said for the modern estates that sold on Carbon Beach for $28 million, $30 million, and $40 million.

On Point Dume, a bluff top home overlooking Little Dume quietly sold for $52 million after undergoing a complete renovation. Broad Beach has continued to enjoy its time in the sun, with two $20+ million sales on lots with large frontage and a record-breaking $35 million for a single lot sold off-market.

Meanwhile, on Malibu’s landside, Point Dume was once again the star. Two off-market transactions in particular have been greatly discussed: a $28.5 million sale on Bison Court and a $21 million sale on Grayfox. Murphy and Winding Way also saw a resurgence, with three sales between $9-12 million. The Marisol development at County Line is noteworthy, with a $28 million auction and $16 million sale. Once again, this mixed bag shows a heightened emphasis on the home rather than location perhaps except for Point Dume.

Condominium Sales

Malibu’s condominium market has become incredibly competitive in the past two years since the post-COVID real estate boom, with low inventory and many active buyers. However, in 2023, the condo and townhouse listing inventory made a slight recovery and presented more available options. The result? A continuation of the very strong Malibu condominium market.

• Total sales: 52 (51 in 2022)
• Average days on market: 49 (27 in 2022)
• Average sold price: $1.48 million ($1.69 million in 2022)
• Median sold price: $1.2 million ($1.32 million median in 2022)
• Total volume sold: $77 million ($86 million in 2022)

The decrease in sales prices is somewhat predictable. In this price range, interest rates play a larger role and we saw days on the market nearly double from the fever pitch in 2022. There were also more options available, particularly in some of Malibu’s better-priced complexes like the Malibu Gardens. The positive surprise is the sheer number of transactions, barely outperforming 2022.

Manufactured Homes

Malibu has two mobile home communities, and both have become some of Malibu’s hottest real estate in recent years.

Point Dume Club and Paradise Cove both offer something completely unique, with a wide range of mobile homes on premium, leased land with easy coastal access. Inventory is still low, though it has slightly rebounded from the all-time high demand experienced in 2021/2022. Meanwhile, prices have continued to rise. Here is a market recap of 2023:

• Total sales: 15 (10 in Point Dume Club, 5 in Paradise Cove) | 2022: 16 total sales (9 in Point Dume Club, 7 in Paradise Cove)
• Average days on market: 29 (50 in 2022)
• Average sold price: $2.08 million ($1.86 million in 2022)
• Total volume sold: $31.3 million ($29.9 million in 2022)

Gone are the days of sub $1 million dollar mobile homes, and finding low space rent is becoming increasingly challenging. Prices continue to rise in both communities, with Paradise Cove in particular putting up some staggering numbers. A $5.6 million sale in 2023 (and another off-market over $7M), means that these mobile homes are now selling for relatively the same prices as single-family homes on Point Dume.

However, outside of the more extreme data points, both still remain a more affordable means to enjoy the same lifestyle and locations as some of Malibu’s most expensive real estate. We expect both prices to keep increasing with time, but the question remains: what is the price ceiling for a mobile home on leased land? We might be getting close.

Land Lots & Burnouts

Malibu land was one of 2023’s most noteworthy changes. As one of Malibu’s top land specialists, we’ve been monitoring this closely and helping our clients navigate the shifting market. In summary:

• Total sales: 40 (63 in 2022)
• Average days on market: 145 (138 in 2022)
• Average sold price: $1.2 million ($1.4 million in 2022)
• Total volume sold: $48 million ($88 million in 2022)

The Malibu land market cooled significantly in 2023. The Woolsey burnout lots are essentially gone, other than the occasional listing, and most of those on the market are in a secondary phase listed with plans and or permits. Market fluctuation and an increased regulatory environment are also contributors to decreased developer interest in Malibu. There were only 16 sales over $1 million and the total volume sold decreased by almost half.

But it’s not all bad news. We view 2023 as a slump rather than a trend. This year saw the Malibu Colony parcel finally sell for $14 million and multiple high-end transactions for lots with plans and permits. The model of processing plans for raw land is still effective, and saving years along with thousands of dollars to a buyer will still fetch a premium price for the sellers.

With prices dropping, there is a good opportunity for buyers who are comfortable or familiar with developing coastal land. Sellers will need to stay competitive on price and be willing to make quick adjustments

Leases

Finally, the leases. Lucky for landlords, there are always tenants who want to live in Malibu, whether it be one month or 1+ year. 2023 saw prices soften, but overall, there were more transactions and a healthy lease market.

Malibu Beach

• Total leased: 84 (78 in 2022)
• Average days on market: 115 (87 in 2022)
• Average leased price: $26,208/mo ($32,829/mo in 2022)

Malibu Landside

• Total leased: 255 (223 in 2022)
• Average days on market: 64 (55 in 2022)
• Average leased price: $12,748/mo ($15,352/mo in 2022)

Both the beach and the landside of Malibu saw more transactions than 2022, but leased prices dropped. Increased inventory translated to longer days on the market and landlords making concessions in price. Generally speaking, if people are not buying, then they are leasing and this appears to be the case in Malibu. Correct pricing and positioning in this market will be key for landlords and their agents, especially considering that early in 2024 there are almost 300 properties in Malibu listed for lease!

2024 Market Predictions & Trends

Here is The Mark & Grether Group’s forecast for Malibu real estate in 2024:

• Consistent with the last few years, pricing remains more important than ever. Well-priced homes are still moving quickly and inventory is low. An in-depth market analysis and property evaluation with a local expert are essential to succeeding in a high sales price and expedient process (ideally both). Sellers who are quick to adjustment will win deals.
• Starting out the year, buyers have the upper hand. Inventory is slowly creeping back and unless a property is priced very well, buyers will have the upper hand in negotiations. The Fed is expected to drop interest rates several times, which could level the playing field.
• The condo and mobile home markets will remain hot commodities in Malibu, both being more affordable ways to access the coastal lifestyles. Prices for mobile homes, particularly in Point Dume Club, will likely continue to increase. The rest should remain fairly stable.
• The land market will continue to favor properties with plans or permits in process. Buyers have more power to negotiate, but also fewer options to choose from. Developers may become re-involved as the economy improves.
• Our lease market will keep moving along, with well-priced properties leasing fairly quickly. Unless there is a large shift towards buying, we can expect the tenants to remain fairly consistent.
• The summer lease market last year was quiet, the general consensus being that everyone went to Italy! This may be a bold prediction, but we think the crowds and travel of Europe will be out of style this summer and Malibu beach will be more a popular destination than it was in 2023.

The Mark & Grether Group is proud to be Malibu’s #1 real estate team by volume sold for four years running! With $1.4 billion in career sales, we are looking forward to another year of successful transactions and working with Malibu, Los Angeles, and Ventura residents both old and new. It is our honor to be a trusted, local resource in Malibu working with sellers, buyers, landlords, and tenants at all price points. If you are considering making a move, don’t wait. For a no-obligation consultation and property analysis, please get in touch with our team!

The Mark & Grether Group | Tony Mark & Russell Grether | 310.230.5771 | russellandtony@compass.com